2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · Spartan Stadium
Northwestern @ Michigan State
Predicted scoreLikely
Northwestern
33.3
Michigan State
21.0
Michigan State win probability: 22%
Margin (Michigan State − Northwestern): -12.3 (80% range -32 to 7)
Total: 54.3 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Northwestern 24 – Michigan State 21 (margin error 9.3, total error 9.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.79% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.62% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:34 PM | -2.3 | 49.9 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:35 PM | -2.3 | 49.9 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:46 PM | -2.3 | 49.9 | 44% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:56 AM | -2.3 | 49.9 | 44% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:47 PM | -2.3 | 49.9 | 44% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:03 PM | -2.6 | 49.8 | 43% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:15 PM | -2.4 | 51.8 | 44% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:12 PM | -2.4 | 51.8 | 44% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:47 PM | -2.4 | 51.8 | 44% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:04 AM | -2.1 | 51.8 | 45% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:46 PM | -2.1 | 51.8 | 45% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:31 PM | -9.5 | 51.6 | 28% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:21 PM | -13.1 | 51.9 | 20% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:26 PM | -12.3 | 54.3 | 22% |