2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · Spartan Stadium
Northwestern @ Michigan State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Northwestern
26.1
Michigan State
23.8
Michigan State win probability: 44%
Margin (Michigan State − Northwestern): -2.3 (80% range -22 to 17)
Total: 49.9 (80% range 28 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.67% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.65% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:34 PM | -2.3 | 49.9 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:35 PM | -2.3 | 49.9 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:46 PM | -2.3 | 49.9 | 44% |