2026 Week 13 · Nov 28, 2026, 5:00 AM · SHI Stadium
Michigan State @ Rutgers
Predicted scoreToss-up
Michigan State
29.9
Rutgers
26.8
Rutgers win probability: 42%
Margin (Rutgers − Michigan State): -3.1 (80% range -24 to 17)
Total: 56.8 (80% range 33 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.61% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:08 PM | 1.2 | 59.6 | 53% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:09 PM | 1.2 | 59.6 | 53% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:21 PM | 1.2 | 59.6 | 53% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:35 AM | 1.2 | 59.6 | 53% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:06:00 PM | 1.1 | 59.5 | 53% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:37 PM | 0.8 | 59.2 | 52% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:52 PM | -8.2 | 60.7 | 31% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:03 PM | -7.8 | 58.7 | 32% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:43:14 PM | -7.8 | 58.8 | 32% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:01 PM | -7.5 | 58.7 | 32% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:21 PM | -7.5 | 58.6 | 32% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:52 PM | -5.1 | 55.4 | 37% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:38 PM | -3.6 | 55.3 | 41% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:50 PM | -4.5 | 56.3 | 39% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:58 PM | -3.1 | 56.8 | 42% |