2023 Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023, 4:00 PM · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)

Penn State @ Illinois

Predicted scoreLikely

Penn State

32.5

Illinois

22.7

Illinois win probability: 27%

Margin (Illinois − Penn State): -9.8 (80% range -31 to 11)

Total: 55.2 (80% range 31 to 80)

Actual: Penn State 30 – Illinois 13 (margin error 7.2, total error 12.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.