2023 Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023, 5:00 PM · Beaver Stadium
Michigan @ Penn State
Predicted scoreLean
Michigan
29.4
Penn State
24.6
Penn State win probability: 38%
Margin (Penn State − Michigan): -4.8 (80% range -25 to 15)
Total: 54.0 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Michigan 24 – Penn State 15 (margin error 4.2, total error 15.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.