2023 Postseason · Dec 30, 2023, 5:00 PM · Mercedes-Benz Stadium (neutral site)

Ole Miss @ Penn State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Ole Miss

27.0

Penn State

31.0

Penn State win probability: 60%

Margin (Penn State − Ole Miss): 4.1 (80% range -17 to 25)

Total: 58.0 (80% range 34 to 83)

Actual: Ole Miss 38 – Penn State 25 (margin error 17.1, total error 5.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.