Penn State
Big Ten
2025 rating history
Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.
Past prediction accuracy — 2025
| Week | Opponent | Actual | Predicted | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Nevada | 11–46 | 12.2–42.9 | 4.4 |
| Week 2 | vs Florida International | 0–34 | 7.6–43.8 | 2.2 |
| Week 5 | vs Oregon | 30–24 | 24.0–29.5 | 11.4 |
| Week 6 | @ UCLA | 42–37 | 20.4–36.0 | 20.6 |
| Week 7 | vs Northwestern | 22–21 | 19.1–32.9 | 14.8 |
| Week 8 | @ Iowa | 25–24 | 25.3–22.7 | 1.6 |
| Week 10 | @ Ohio State | 38–14 | 33.5–19.8 | 10.3 |
| Week 11 | vs Indiana | 27–24 | 35.1–22.9 | 9.2 |
| Week 12 | @ Michigan State | 10–28 | 23.1–32.5 | 8.6 |
| Week 13 | vs Nebraska | 10–37 | 22.6–30.4 | 19.2 |
| Week 14 | @ Rutgers | 36–40 | 25.1–36.4 | 7.2 |
| Week 1 | @ Clemson | 10–22 | 24.2–31.1 | 5.1 |