2025 Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025, 7:30 PM · Beaver Stadium
Northwestern @ Penn State
Predicted scoreLikely
Northwestern
19.1
Penn State
32.9
Penn State win probability: 81%
Margin (Penn State − Northwestern): 13.8 (80% range -7 to 35)
Total: 51.9 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Northwestern 22 – Penn State 21 (margin error 14.8, total error 8.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.70% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.