2025 Week 11 · Nov 8, 2025, 5:00 PM · Beaver Stadium
Indiana @ Penn State
Predicted scoreLikely
Indiana
35.1
Penn State
22.9
Penn State win probability: 23%
Margin (Penn State − Indiana): -12.2 (80% range -33 to 8)
Total: 58.0 (80% range 34 to 83)
Actual: Indiana 27 – Penn State 24 (margin error 9.2, total error 7.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.61% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 38 | 24 | 0.59% |
| 38 | 14 | 0.55% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.