2025 Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025, 8:30 PM · SHI Stadium
Penn State @ Rutgers
Predicted scoreLikely
Penn State
36.4
Rutgers
25.1
Rutgers win probability: 25%
Margin (Rutgers − Penn State): -11.2 (80% range -32 to 10)
Total: 61.5 (80% range 37 to 88)
Actual: Penn State 40 – Rutgers 36 (margin error 7.2, total error 14.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.64% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.58% |
| 38 | 24 | 0.57% |
| 35 | 24 | 0.57% |
| 35 | 17 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.