2025 Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025, 11:30 PM · Beaver Stadium
Oregon @ Penn State
Predicted scoreLean
Oregon
24.0
Penn State
29.5
Penn State win probability: 63%
Margin (Penn State − Oregon): 5.4 (80% range -14 to 25)
Total: 53.5 (80% range 31 to 78)
Actual: Oregon 30 – Penn State 24 (margin error 11.4, total error 0.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.