2025 Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025, 11:00 PM · Kinnick Stadium
Penn State @ Iowa
Predicted scoreToss-up
Penn State
22.7
Iowa
25.3
Iowa win probability: 57%
Margin (Iowa − Penn State): 2.6 (80% range -17 to 22)
Total: 48.0 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: Penn State 24 – Iowa 25 (margin error 1.6, total error 1.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.83% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.79% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.