2025 Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025, 7:30 PM · Beaver Stadium
Nevada @ Penn State
Predicted scoreConfident
Nevada
12.2
Penn State
42.9
Penn State win probability: 97%
Margin (Penn State − Nevada): 30.6 (80% range 10 to 52)
Total: 55.1 (80% range 33 to 79)
Actual: Nevada 11 – Penn State 46 (margin error 4.4, total error 1.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 38 | 1.04% |
| 10 | 45 | 0.99% |
| 7 | 45 | 0.84% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.83% |
| 7 | 35 | 0.81% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.