2025 Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025, 4:00 PM · Ohio Stadium
Penn State @ Ohio State
Predicted scoreLikely
Penn State
19.8
Ohio State
33.5
Ohio State win probability: 81%
Margin (Ohio State − Penn State): 13.7 (80% range -7 to 35)
Total: 53.3 (80% range 31 to 78)
Actual: Penn State 14 – Ohio State 38 (margin error 10.3, total error 1.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.65% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.