2025 Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025, 7:30 PM · Rose Bowl
Penn State @ UCLA
Predicted scoreLikely
Penn State
36.0
UCLA
20.4
UCLA win probability: 17%
Margin (UCLA − Penn State): -15.6 (80% range -36 to 4)
Total: 56.3 (80% range 33 to 81)
Actual: Penn State 37 – UCLA 42 (margin error 20.6, total error 22.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.62% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.