2023 Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023, 7:30 PM · Beaver Stadium
Massachusetts @ Penn State
Predicted scoreConfident
Massachusetts
10.4
Penn State
46.1
Penn State win probability: 99%
Margin (Penn State − Massachusetts): 35.7 (80% range 14 to 58)
Total: 56.5 (80% range 34 to 80)
Actual: Massachusetts 0 – Penn State 63 (margin error 27.3, total error 6.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 38 | 0.98% |
| 7 | 45 | 0.92% |
| 0 | 38 | 0.85% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.83% |
| 3 | 38 | 0.80% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.