2026 Week 13 · Nov 28, 2026, 5:00 AM · SECU Stadium
Penn State @ Maryland
Predicted scoreLikely
Penn State
31.8
Maryland
19.8
Maryland win probability: 22%
Margin (Maryland − Penn State): -12.0 (80% range -32 to 7)
Total: 51.6 (80% range 30 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.73% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:04 PM | -10.1 | 54.0 | 27% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:03 PM | -10.1 | 54.0 | 27% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:28 PM | -10.2 | 54.0 | 27% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:42 AM | -10.1 | 54.0 | 27% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:56 PM | -10.2 | 54.0 | 27% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:54 PM | -9.6 | 54.0 | 28% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:59 PM | -12.0 | 51.9 | 22% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:32 PM | -6.1 | 51.8 | 35% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:43:09 PM | -6.2 | 51.8 | 35% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:06 PM | -5.9 | 51.8 | 36% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:25 PM | -5.9 | 51.8 | 36% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:59 PM | -15.3 | 50.9 | 17% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:44 PM | -14.1 | 51.2 | 18% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:56 PM | -11.6 | 51.4 | 23% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:25:01 PM | -12.0 | 51.6 | 22% |