2026 Week 13 · Nov 28, 2026, 5:00 AM · SECU Stadium
Penn State @ Maryland
Predicted scoreLikely
Penn State
32.1
Maryland
21.9
Maryland win probability: 27%
Margin (Maryland − Penn State): -10.2 (80% range -31 to 10)
Total: 54.0 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.64% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:04 PM | -10.1 | 54.0 | 27% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:03 PM | -10.1 | 54.0 | 27% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:28 PM | -10.2 | 54.0 | 27% |