2026 Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026, 7:30 PM · Beaver Stadium
Marshall @ Penn State
Predicted scoreConfident
Marshall
15.4
Penn State
41.1
Penn State win probability: 95%
Margin (Penn State − Marshall): 25.7 (80% range 5 to 47)
Total: 56.5 (80% range 34 to 81)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 45 | 0.74% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.74% |
| 7 | 38 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:13 PM | 25.8 | 56.4 | 95% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:16 PM | 25.7 | 56.4 | 95% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:05 PM | 25.7 | 56.5 | 95% |