2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Beaver Stadium
Minnesota @ Penn State
Predicted scoreLikely
Minnesota
15.7
Penn State
30.3
Penn State win probability: 83%
Margin (Penn State − Minnesota): 14.6 (80% range -4 to 35)
Total: 46.0 (80% range 24 to 69)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 24 | 0.95% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.95% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.84% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.77% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:34 PM | 15.0 | 51.6 | 83% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:33 PM | 15.0 | 51.6 | 83% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:50 PM | 15.0 | 51.6 | 83% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:26 AM | 15.0 | 51.6 | 83% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:11 PM | 15.0 | 51.6 | 83% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:12 PM | 15.6 | 51.8 | 84% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:04 PM | 16.7 | 49.8 | 86% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:13 PM | 18.0 | 50.0 | 88% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:58 PM | 18.0 | 50.1 | 88% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:14 PM | 18.2 | 50.1 | 88% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:41 PM | 18.2 | 50.1 | 88% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:35 PM | 15.2 | 48.5 | 84% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:04 PM | 13.1 | 46.5 | 81% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:29 PM | 14.3 | 46.5 | 83% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:10 PM | 14.6 | 46.0 | 83% |