2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Beaver Stadium
Minnesota @ Penn State
Predicted scoreLikely
Minnesota
18.3
Penn State
33.3
Penn State win probability: 83%
Margin (Penn State − Minnesota): 15.0 (80% range -5 to 35)
Total: 51.6 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 24 | 0.79% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.77% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:34 PM | 15.0 | 51.6 | 83% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:33 PM | 15.0 | 51.6 | 83% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:50 PM | 15.0 | 51.6 | 83% |