2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 4:00 AM · Beaver Stadium
USC @ Penn State
Predicted scoreLean
USC
25.3
Penn State
31.8
Penn State win probability: 66%
Margin (Penn State − USC): 6.4 (80% range -14 to 27)
Total: 57.1 (80% range 34 to 83)
Actual: USC 31 – Penn State 23 (margin error 14.4, total error 3.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.62% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:23 PM | 3.8 | 59.5 | 59% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:26 PM | 3.8 | 59.5 | 59% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:06 PM | 3.9 | 59.5 | 59% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:41 AM | 3.9 | 59.5 | 59% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:18 PM | 3.8 | 59.4 | 59% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:30 PM | 3.4 | 59.3 | 58% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:20 PM | 4.2 | 58.5 | 60% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:47 PM | 5.7 | 58.7 | 63% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:03 PM | 5.6 | 58.7 | 63% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:47 AM | 5.7 | 58.7 | 63% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:54 PM | 5.7 | 58.7 | 63% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:52 PM | 7.8 | 57.2 | 69% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:45:55 PM | 6.4 | 57.1 | 66% |