2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 4:00 AM · Beaver Stadium
USC @ Penn State
Predicted scoreToss-up
USC
27.8
Penn State
31.7
Penn State win probability: 59%
Margin (Penn State − USC): 3.9 (80% range -17 to 25)
Total: 59.5 (80% range 35 to 86)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:23 PM | 3.8 | 59.5 | 59% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:26 PM | 3.8 | 59.5 | 59% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:06 PM | 3.9 | 59.5 | 59% |