2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 12:00 AM · Ryan Field
Penn State @ Northwestern
Predicted scoreLean
Penn State
29.5
Northwestern
23.6
Northwestern win probability: 35%
Margin (Northwestern − Penn State): -5.8 (80% range -26 to 14)
Total: 53.1 (80% range 30 to 78)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.61% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:08 PM | -5.8 | 53.1 | 35% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:05 PM | -5.8 | 53.1 | 36% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:19 PM | -5.8 | 53.1 | 35% |