2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 12:00 AM · Ryan Field
Penn State @ Northwestern
Predicted scoreToss-up
Penn State
24.8
Northwestern
27.7
Northwestern win probability: 57%
Margin (Northwestern − Penn State): 2.8 (80% range -17 to 23)
Total: 52.5 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Penn State 13 – Northwestern 34 (margin error 18.2, total error 5.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:08 PM | -5.8 | 53.1 | 35% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:05 PM | -5.8 | 53.1 | 36% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:19 PM | -5.8 | 53.1 | 35% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:34 AM | -5.8 | 53.1 | 35% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:54 PM | -5.8 | 53.1 | 35% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:29 PM | -5.8 | 52.5 | 36% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:28 PM | -8.0 | 50.5 | 30% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:01 PM | -6.4 | 51.4 | 34% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:29 PM | -6.4 | 51.4 | 34% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:57:59 AM | -6.1 | 51.4 | 35% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:33 PM | -6.1 | 51.4 | 35% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:17 PM | 2.8 | 52.5 | 57% |