2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 4:00 PM · Beaver Stadium
Buffalo @ Penn State
Predicted scoreConfident
Buffalo
11.6
Penn State
42.2
Penn State win probability: 97%
Margin (Penn State − Buffalo): 30.6 (80% range 10 to 52)
Total: 53.8 (80% range 31 to 78)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 45 | 0.91% |
| 7 | 38 | 0.89% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.86% |
| 0 | 38 | 0.83% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.82% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:38 PM | 30.8 | 53.7 | 97% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:36 PM | 30.7 | 53.6 | 97% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:01 PM | 30.6 | 53.8 | 97% |