2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 4:00 PM · Beaver Stadium
Buffalo @ Penn State
Predicted scoreConfident
Buffalo
9.2
Penn State
41.9
Penn State win probability: 98%
Margin (Penn State − Buffalo): 32.7 (80% range 13 to 54)
Total: 51.1 (80% range 30 to 73)
Actual: Buffalo 13 – Penn State 55 (margin error 9.3, total error 16.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 38 | 1.06% |
| 0 | 38 | 1.06% |
| 0 | 45 | 1.00% |
| 0 | 35 | 1.00% |
| 0 | 31 | 0.92% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:38 PM | 30.8 | 53.7 | 97% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:36 PM | 30.7 | 53.6 | 97% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:01 PM | 30.6 | 53.8 | 97% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:34 AM | 30.8 | 53.5 | 97% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:23 PM | 31.1 | 53.1 | 98% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:31 PM | 31.0 | 53.2 | 98% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:10 PM | 33.1 | 52.1 | 98% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:01 PM | 32.7 | 51.1 | 98% |