2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Beaver Stadium
Wisconsin @ Penn State
Predicted scoreLikely
Wisconsin
18.8
Penn State
32.3
Penn State win probability: 81%
Margin (Penn State − Wisconsin): 13.5 (80% range -7 to 34)
Total: 51.1 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 24 | 0.81% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:53 PM | 13.5 | 51.2 | 81% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:59 PM | 14.6 | 51.5 | 82% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:01 PM | 13.5 | 51.1 | 81% |