2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Beaver Stadium
Wisconsin @ Penn State
Predicted scoreLikely
Wisconsin
17.9
Penn State
32.0
Penn State win probability: 82%
Margin (Penn State − Wisconsin): 14.1 (80% range -6 to 34)
Total: 49.9 (80% range 28 to 73)
Actual: Wisconsin 24 – Penn State 20 (margin error 18.1, total error 5.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:53 PM | 13.5 | 51.2 | 81% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:59 PM | 14.6 | 51.5 | 82% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:01 PM | 13.5 | 51.1 | 81% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:52 AM | 13.5 | 50.6 | 81% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:44 PM | 13.6 | 50.4 | 81% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:00 PM | 13.4 | 50.3 | 81% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:09 PM | 15.1 | 50.4 | 83% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:24 PM | 14.0 | 49.8 | 82% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:04 PM | 14.1 | 49.9 | 82% |