2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 AM · Beaver Stadium
Rutgers @ Penn State
Predicted scoreLikely
Rutgers
23.4
Penn State
39.1
Penn State win probability: 83%
Margin (Penn State − Rutgers): 15.7 (80% range -6 to 38)
Total: 62.5 (80% range 38 to 89)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.61% |
| 21 | 38 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:52 PM | 15.7 | 62.5 | 83% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:52 PM | 15.7 | 62.5 | 83% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:25 PM | 15.7 | 62.5 | 83% |