2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 AM · Beaver Stadium
Rutgers @ Penn State
Predicted scoreLikely
Rutgers
20.4
Penn State
36.5
Penn State win probability: 84%
Margin (Penn State − Rutgers): 16.1 (80% range -4 to 37)
Total: 57.0 (80% range 34 to 83)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.75% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.61% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.59% |
| 14 | 28 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:52 PM | 15.7 | 62.5 | 83% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:52 PM | 15.7 | 62.5 | 83% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:25 PM | 15.7 | 62.5 | 83% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:42 AM | 15.7 | 62.5 | 83% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:48 PM | 15.7 | 62.5 | 83% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:06 PM | 15.5 | 61.0 | 83% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:26 PM | 25.3 | 58.4 | 94% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:41 PM | 22.8 | 56.6 | 92% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:30 PM | 22.8 | 56.7 | 92% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:45 PM | 23.0 | 56.8 | 92% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:15 PM | 23.0 | 56.8 | 92% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:04 PM | 20.7 | 55.8 | 90% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:15 PM | 20.6 | 56.7 | 90% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:14 PM | 18.6 | 56.9 | 88% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:39 PM | 16.1 | 57.0 | 84% |