2026 Week 9 · Oct 31, 2026, 4:00 AM · Beaver Stadium
Purdue @ Penn State
Predicted scoreLikely
Purdue
21.3
Penn State
35.5
Penn State win probability: 82%
Margin (Penn State − Purdue): 14.2 (80% range -7 to 35)
Total: 56.8 (80% range 34 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:04 PM | 19.2 | 57.3 | 88% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:04 PM | 19.2 | 57.3 | 88% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:10 PM | 19.1 | 57.3 | 88% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:19 AM | 19.1 | 57.3 | 88% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:37 PM | 19.5 | 57.3 | 89% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:54 PM | 19.3 | 57.5 | 89% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:11 PM | 20.7 | 54.2 | 90% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:10 PM | 19.9 | 58.1 | 90% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:37 PM | 20.0 | 58.2 | 90% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:54 AM | 20.5 | 58.3 | 90% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:26 PM | 20.5 | 58.3 | 90% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:25 PM | 18.8 | 58.5 | 87% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:18 PM | 15.5 | 57.2 | 83% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:31 PM | 12.2 | 57.3 | 77% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:32 PM | 14.2 | 56.8 | 82% |