2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 5:00 AM · Husky Stadium
Penn State @ Washington
Predicted scoreToss-up
Penn State
23.8
Washington
24.5
Washington win probability: 52%
Margin (Washington − Penn State): 0.6 (80% range -18 to 21)
Total: 48.3 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.86% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.83% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:24 PM | 1.9 | 53.2 | 55% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:19 PM | 1.9 | 53.1 | 55% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:13 PM | 1.9 | 53.1 | 55% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:27 AM | 1.9 | 53.1 | 55% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:46 PM | 1.8 | 53.0 | 55% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:28 PM | 1.7 | 52.4 | 55% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:18 PM | 0.5 | 49.6 | 51% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:48 PM | -0.3 | 47.4 | 49% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:21 PM | -0.3 | 47.4 | 49% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:42 PM | -0.1 | 47.4 | 50% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:10 PM | -0.1 | 47.4 | 50% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:57 PM | -2.9 | 47.8 | 43% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:28 PM | -1.1 | 46.1 | 47% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:19 PM | -0.7 | 49.5 | 48% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:58 PM | 0.6 | 48.3 | 52% |