2024 Week 15 · Dec 8, 2024, 1:00 AM · Lucas Oil Stadium (neutral site)

Penn State @ Oregon

Predicted scoreToss-up

Penn State

27.4

Oregon

27.3

Oregon win probability: 50%

Margin (Oregon − Penn State): -0.1 (80% range -21 to 21)

Total: 54.8 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: Penn State 37 – Oregon 45 (margin error 8.1, total error 27.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.