2024 Postseason · Jan 10, 2025, 12:30 AM · Hard Rock Stadium (neutral site)

Notre Dame @ Penn State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Notre Dame

26.9

Penn State

26.4

Penn State win probability: 49%

Margin (Penn State − Notre Dame): -0.5 (80% range -21 to 20)

Total: 53.3 (80% range 30 to 78)

Actual: Notre Dame 27 – Penn State 24 (margin error 2.5, total error 2.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.