2024 Postseason · Dec 21, 2024, 5:00 PM · Beaver Stadium
SMU @ Penn State
Predicted scoreLikely
SMU
20.8
Penn State
35.8
Penn State win probability: 82%
Margin (Penn State − SMU): 15.0 (80% range -6 to 36)
Total: 56.6 (80% range 34 to 82)
Actual: SMU 10 – Penn State 38 (margin error 13.0, total error 8.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.58% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.57% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.57% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.