2024 Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024, 4:00 PM · Beaver Stadium
UCLA @ Penn State
Predicted scoreConfident
UCLA
15.1
Penn State
35.7
Penn State win probability: 91%
Margin (Penn State − UCLA): 20.6 (80% range 0 to 42)
Total: 50.7 (80% range 28 to 74)
Actual: UCLA 11 – Penn State 27 (margin error 4.6, total error 12.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 31 | 0.83% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.75% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.73% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.