2024 Postseason · Jan 1, 2025, 12:30 AM · State Farm Stadium (neutral site)

Penn State @ Boise State

Predicted scoreLikely

Penn State

33.2

Boise State

23.7

Boise State win probability: 28%

Margin (Boise State − Penn State): -9.6 (80% range -31 to 11)

Total: 56.9 (80% range 34 to 82)

Actual: Penn State 31 – Boise State 14 (margin error 7.4, total error 11.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.