2024 Week 9 · Oct 26, 2024, 11:30 PM · Camp Randall Stadium

Penn State @ Wisconsin

Predicted scoreLean

Penn State

27.1

Wisconsin

22.3

Wisconsin win probability: 38%

Margin (Wisconsin − Penn State): -4.8 (80% range -24 to 15)

Total: 49.4 (80% range 27 to 72)

Actual: Penn State 28 – Wisconsin 13 (margin error 10.2, total error 8.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.