Toledo
Mid-American
2023 rating history
Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.
Past prediction accuracy — 2023
| Week | Opponent | Actual | Predicted | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Illinois | 30–28 | 32.2–18.5 | 11.8 |
| Week 3 | vs San José State | 17–21 | 28.6–31.3 | 1.2 |
| Week 4 | vs Western Michigan | 31–49 | 23.2–32.7 | 8.5 |
| Week 5 | vs Northern Illinois | 33–35 | 21.9–33.0 | 9.1 |
| Week 6 | @ Massachusetts | 24–41 | 20.1–37.6 | 0.5 |
| Week 7 | @ Ball State | 6–13 | 21.2–33.2 | 5.0 |
| Week 8 | @ Miami (OH) | 17–21 | 25.3–24.3 | 5.0 |
| Week 10 | vs Buffalo | 13–31 | 22.6–29.0 | 11.6 |
| Week 11 | vs Eastern Michigan | 23–49 | 17.4–30.6 | 12.7 |
| Week 12 | @ Bowling Green | 31–32 | 23.8–27.4 | 2.5 |
| Week 13 | @ Central Michigan | 17–32 | 26.7–32.0 | 9.6 |
| Week 14 | vs Miami (OH) | 23–14 | 25.1–25.5 | 9.4 |
| Week 1 | @ Wyoming | 16–15 | 24.6–27.6 | 4.0 |