2023 Week 13 · Nov 24, 2023, 5:00 PM · Kelly/Shorts Stadium

Toledo @ Central Michigan

Predicted scoreLean

Toledo

32.0

Central Michigan

26.7

Central Michigan win probability: 38%

Margin (Central Michigan − Toledo): -5.4 (80% range -27 to 15)

Total: 58.7 (80% range 34 to 85)

Actual: Toledo 32 – Central Michigan 17 (margin error 9.6, total error 9.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.