2023 Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023, 11:30 PM · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)

Toledo @ Illinois

Predicted scoreLikely

Toledo

18.5

Illinois

32.2

Illinois win probability: 81%

Margin (Illinois − Toledo): 13.8 (80% range -7 to 35)

Total: 50.7 (80% range 28 to 75)

Actual: Toledo 28 – Illinois 30 (margin error 11.8, total error 7.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.