2023 Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023, 11:00 PM · Glass Bowl
San José State @ Toledo
Predicted scoreToss-up
San José State
28.6
Toledo
31.3
Toledo win probability: 57%
Margin (Toledo − San José State): 2.8 (80% range -18 to 24)
Total: 59.9 (80% range 35 to 86)
Actual: San José State 17 – Toledo 21 (margin error 1.2, total error 21.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.67% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.