2023 Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023, 7:30 PM · Glass Bowl
Northern Illinois @ Toledo
Predicted scoreLikely
Northern Illinois
21.9
Toledo
33.0
Toledo win probability: 76%
Margin (Toledo − Northern Illinois): 11.1 (80% range -10 to 32)
Total: 54.9 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Northern Illinois 33 – Toledo 35 (margin error 9.1, total error 13.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.63% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:07 PM | 11.1 | 54.9 | 76% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:35 PM | 11.1 | 54.9 | 76% |