2023 Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023, 5:30 PM · Glass Bowl
Western Michigan @ Toledo
Predicted scoreLikely
Western Michigan
23.2
Toledo
32.7
Toledo win probability: 72%
Margin (Toledo − Western Michigan): 9.5 (80% range -11 to 31)
Total: 55.9 (80% range 31 to 81)
Actual: Western Michigan 31 – Toledo 49 (margin error 8.5, total error 24.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.