Toledo
Mid-American
2025 rating history
Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.
Past prediction accuracy — 2025
| Week | Opponent | Actual | Predicted | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Kentucky | 24–16 | 32.4–19.2 | 5.2 |
| Week 2 | vs Western Kentucky | 21–45 | 25.2–27.1 | 22.1 |
| Week 4 | @ Western Michigan | 14–13 | 20.6–29.9 | 10.2 |
| Week 5 | vs Akron | 3–45 | 14.1–33.0 | 23.1 |
| Week 7 | @ Bowling Green | 28–23 | 21.7–26.7 | 10.0 |
| Week 8 | vs Kent State | 10–45 | 15.0–36.1 | 13.9 |
| Week 9 | @ Washington State | 28–7 | 28.3–25.6 | 18.3 |
| Week 11 | vs Northern Illinois | 3–42 | 18.8–29.4 | 28.5 |
| Week 12 | @ Miami (OH) | 3–24 | 23.6–27.2 | 17.4 |
| Week 13 | vs Ball State | 9–38 | 14.8–34.0 | 9.8 |
| Week 14 | @ Central Michigan | 3–21 | 20.3–30.0 | 8.3 |
| Week 1 | @ Louisville | 27–22 | 34.1–20.6 | 8.6 |