2025 Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025, 4:00 PM · Doyt L. Perry Stadium

Toledo @ Bowling Green

Predicted scoreLean

Toledo

26.7

Bowling Green

21.7

Bowling Green win probability: 38%

Margin (Bowling Green − Toledo): -5.0 (80% range -25 to 14)

Total: 48.5 (80% range 27 to 72)

Actual: Toledo 23 – Bowling Green 28 (margin error 10.0, total error 2.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.