2025 Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025, 7:00 PM · Glass Bowl
Ball State @ Toledo
Predicted scoreConfident
Ball State
14.8
Toledo
34.0
Toledo win probability: 89%
Margin (Toledo − Ball State): 19.2 (80% range 0 to 39)
Total: 48.9 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: Ball State 9 – Toledo 38 (margin error 9.8, total error 1.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 31 | 0.92% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.91% |
| 7 | 38 | 0.78% |
| 7 | 21 | 0.77% |
| 7 | 28 | 0.77% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.