2025 Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025, 5:00 PM · Kelly/Shorts Stadium

Toledo @ Central Michigan

Predicted scoreLikely

Toledo

30.0

Central Michigan

20.3

Central Michigan win probability: 27%

Margin (Central Michigan − Toledo): -9.7 (80% range -30 to 10)

Total: 50.3 (80% range 28 to 74)

Actual: Toledo 21 – Central Michigan 3 (margin error 8.3, total error 26.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.