Predicted scoreLikely
Toledo
19.2
Kentucky
32.4
Kentucky win probability: 80%
Margin (Kentucky − Toledo): 13.2 (80% range -7 to 34)
Total: 51.7 (80% range 29 to 76)
Actual: Toledo 16 – Kentucky 24 (margin error 5.2, total error 11.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.72% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.