2025 Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025, 11:00 PM · Glass Bowl
Western Kentucky @ Toledo
Predicted scoreToss-up
Western Kentucky
25.2
Toledo
27.1
Toledo win probability: 55%
Margin (Toledo − Western Kentucky): 1.9 (80% range -18 to 22)
Total: 52.2 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Western Kentucky 21 – Toledo 45 (margin error 22.1, total error 13.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.65% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.