2025 Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025, 7:30 PM · Waldo Stadium
Toledo @ Western Michigan
Predicted scoreLikely
Toledo
29.9
Western Michigan
20.6
Western Michigan win probability: 28%
Margin (Western Michigan − Toledo): -9.2 (80% range -29 to 11)
Total: 50.5 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: Toledo 13 – Western Michigan 14 (margin error 10.2, total error 23.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 14 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.68% |
| 21 | 14 | 0.68% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.