2025 Postseason · Dec 23, 2025, 7:00 PM · FAU Stadium (neutral site)

Toledo @ Louisville

Predicted scoreLikely

Toledo

20.6

Louisville

34.1

Louisville win probability: 80%

Margin (Louisville − Toledo): 13.6 (80% range -7 to 35)

Total: 54.7 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: Toledo 22 – Louisville 27 (margin error 8.6, total error 5.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.