2025 Week 12 · Nov 13, 2025, 12:00 AM · Yager Stadium
Toledo @ Miami (OH)
Predicted scoreToss-up
Toledo
27.2
Miami (OH)
23.6
Miami (OH) win probability: 41%
Margin (Miami (OH) − Toledo): -3.6 (80% range -24 to 17)
Total: 50.8 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: Toledo 24 – Miami (OH) 3 (margin error 17.4, total error 23.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.71% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.