2025 Week 11 · Nov 6, 2025, 12:00 AM · Glass Bowl
Northern Illinois @ Toledo
Predicted scoreLikely
Northern Illinois
18.8
Toledo
29.4
Toledo win probability: 75%
Margin (Toledo − Northern Illinois): 10.5 (80% range -10 to 31)
Total: 48.2 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: Northern Illinois 3 – Toledo 42 (margin error 28.5, total error 3.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.82% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.