2023 Week 6 · Oct 7, 2023, 4:00 PM · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium

Toledo @ Massachusetts

Predicted scoreConfident

Toledo

37.6

Massachusetts

20.1

Massachusetts win probability: 14%

Margin (Massachusetts − Toledo): -17.5 (80% range -39 to 3)

Total: 57.7 (80% range 34 to 83)

Actual: Toledo 41 – Massachusetts 24 (margin error 0.5, total error 7.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.