Predicted scoreLean
Buffalo
22.6
Toledo
29.0
Toledo win probability: 66%
Margin (Toledo − Buffalo): 6.4 (80% range -14 to 27)
Total: 51.7 (80% range 29 to 76)
Actual: Buffalo 13 – Toledo 31 (margin error 11.6, total error 7.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.