2023 Week 12 · Nov 15, 2023, 12:00 AM · Doyt L. Perry Stadium

Toledo @ Bowling Green

Predicted scoreToss-up

Toledo

27.4

Bowling Green

23.8

Bowling Green win probability: 41%

Margin (Bowling Green − Toledo): -3.5 (80% range -24 to 17)

Total: 51.2 (80% range 28 to 75)

Actual: Toledo 32 – Bowling Green 31 (margin error 2.5, total error 11.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.